Sunday, 14. December 2008
It was a busy week in the AL East and I had to sit down and look at it tonight. I’ve been listening to the radio and reading about the moves being made and I came up with this. The Rays are much smarter than the Yankees. There are a few good things about being a small market team and they’re showing during the winter baseball season. Let’s break it down.
- The Yankees signed CC Sabathia to a $161 million deal and brought one of the best pitchers in baseball to New York. But how much did this improve them? I honestly don’t think it improved them much at all. Think about it like this. They signed a guy that won 17 games last year to replace a guy that won 20. Now I’ll say that Sabathia is better than Mussina and he would’ve probably won 22 or 23 games with the Yankees last year with the same run support Mussina got, but that’s still only a 3 game improvement. Not enough for that kind of money. They also signed AJ Burnett to fill in the rotation but they haven’t re-signed Andy Pettitte yet. That’s a 4 game improvement if Andy doesn’t come back. Not enough either. If Pettitte comes back and teams with Wang and Sabathia that should be a decent three man rotation. Then they’re counting on Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes to handle the rest of the load. I’ll take my chances. Burnett will get hurt, Wang and Sabathia will probably be ok, but I don’t think Chamberlain and Hughes will do what they’re expecting. The Yanks also are going to lose Bobby Abreu and Jason Giambi, Jeter is another year older and slower and A-Rod will be useless when needed as he always is. I’m not writing the Yankees off before the season starts, but how many of these store bought teams have done what they’re supposed to do? Even Sabathia realizes that the pressure in NY is so silly that he got an opt-out clause after three years. How much you wanna bet that that gets exercised?
- In comparison, the Rays traded their fifth starter for a young RF prospect who is already an upgrade over anything they put out there last year in Matt Joyce. Replacing Jackson will be the best pitching prospect in baseball who already proved himself at the Major League level at the end of last season, including the playoffs. This move also puts a guy on the bench, Gabe Gross, who contributed in a major way throughout a championship season.
- If we look at who’s not coming back and who is it’s a big difference as well. The Yankees may not have lost all these guys yet but have Andy Pettitte, Bobby Abreu, Mike Mussina and Wilson Betemit. Kyle Farnsworth is gone and so is Carl Pavano (useless) . I personally think Abreu will end up in Chicago and Pettite with the Dodgers. Mussina is retired and that tells me something right there. This is a guy, who at the age of 40 and just came off his first 20 win season, has decided to retire rather than come back to NY or anywhere else. How big a toll did playing in NY take on him? I can’t think of any other reason that he wouldn’t come back to play somewhere for a couple years and try to get his 300th win other than the pressure of playing in NY completely beat him down. There’s no telling what the same pressure will do to Sabathia, who has an awful postseason record, and Burnett. Burnett comes in with an injury history similar to Carl Pavano’s and don’t think that the NY media won’t be harping on that either. The Rays lost Jonny Gomes (finally), who was phased out anyway, Trever Miller and possibly Rocco Baldelli. Miller can be replaced without damage and Baldelli wasn’t counted on anyway.
In wrapping this up I come up with this. The Rays got better already while making one move, the Yankees may or may not have depending on who comes back. The Yankees could still get Abreu, Giambi and Pettite back and that would make them a better team. The main component there would be Pettitte. Even if all these guys came back, who do the Yankees have to fill in if someone goes down? The rotation could end up being a high priced nightmare if one or more of their pitchers get hurt. Who do they have to replace any one of those guys if someone goes down, Darrell Rasner? Again, I’ll take my chances. Their bullpen has already been weakened as well with the loss of Farnsworth and Chamberlain. They could sign Derek Lowe, but I think he’ll end up in Boston. On the Rays end, they have replaced Jackson with Price, Gross with Joyce and still may sign some guys to fill out the DH and bullpen needs. If one or more of the Rays pitchers gets hurt there’s guys like Wade Davis, Jason Hammel, Mitch Talbot, Jeremy Hellickson and Jeff Niemann to fill in. It shows that being small market forces a team to think about the future. Remember when George Steinbrenner was forced out and the team finally had to develop players? They got Bernie Williams, Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera out of that deal, among others. They got role players then like Scott Brosius, Chuck Knoblauch and Jim Leyritz to fill out the roster and that’s how they won all those Series rings. That’s the path the Rays are on now with pieces like Longoria, Price and Upton as they sign guys like Iwamura, Pena and Percival to fill things out. It’s the smart baseball people that win, not the big money teams. We’ve seen it over and over again with teams that try to outspend everyone and don’t succeed and it amazes me that more teams don’t do it better. The Red Soxhave the best combination of both sides right now unfortunately as they have great development and lots of money. They can sign anyone if they want and are developing guys like Papelbon, Pedroia and Youklis. That’s a hard mix to beat but the Rays have the core to compete with them right now, maybe not forever, but right now. The entire perception of these things make me laugh because people are too caught up in the money aspect to see what’s real. The Yankees are supposed to win because they have the most money, they won’t because they don’t have good baseball people. The Red Soxwin because they have both money and good baseball people. They can afford to pay Ortiz, Beckett and Matsuzaka but they don’t win if they don’t develop Pedroia, Youklis and Papelbon. We all hope the Rays can spend the money to keep all these guys but the realistic fact is that, 2 or 3 years from now, they will have to trade a Kazmir, Crawford or Upton to help reload with younger, cheaper players. I hate the thought of that but it’s the reality we live in as a small market team. The great part of it though is that we don’t have distorted thoughts about our teams here and appreciate the winning much more because of it. I can’t wait to see what happens during the rest of this off-season and the regular season next year.
Technorati Tags: AJ Burnett, Akinori Iwamura, Alex Rodriguez, Andy Pettitte, Bernie Williams, BJ Upton, Bobby Abreu, Boston Red Sox, Carl Crawford, Carl Pavano, Carlos Pena, CC Sabathia, Chien-Min Wang, Chuck Knoblauch, Darrell Rasner, David Ortiz, David Price, Derek Jeter, Derek Lowe, Dustin Pedroia, Edwin Jackson, Evan Longoria, Gabe Gross, George Steinbrenner, Jason Giambi, Jason Hammel, Jeff Niemann, Jeremy Hellickson, Jim Leyritz, Joba Chamberlain, Johnathan Papelbon, Jonny Gomes, Kevin Youkilis, Kyle Farnsworth, Los Angeles Dodgers, Mariano Rivera, Matt Joyce, Mike Mussina, Mitch Talbot, New York Yankees, Phil Hughes, Rocco Baldelli, Scott Brosius, Scott Kazmir, Tampa Bay Rays, Trever Miller, Troy Percival, Wade Davis, Wilson Betemit
