Don’t look now, but the Lightning may not be the worst in Tampa!

Monday, 29. December 2008

The Bolts have been the cellar dwellers of Tampa Bay for over a year now and things weren’t looking too good going forward. Starting the month of December the Lightning were 4-10-7 and things were looking as ugly as ever throughout the organization. The USF Bulls were 7-5 and were possibly the most disappointing team in Tampa as much bigger things were expected for them. The Bucs were 9-3 and seemingly on their way to a division title, much less a playoff birth. Fast forward to today and the Bulls capped off the month with a 41-14 win over Memphis in the St. Pete Bowl to help take the sting out of a hugely disappointing season. The Bucs pulled the ultimate choke job by going 0-4 and missing the playoffs after losing to a dismal Oakland Raider team.

The Bolts have gone 4-6-2 to this point, not great I know, but after stringing off three straight wins, look much better than they did a month ago. Now don’t get me wrong, the Lightning still are holding the crown of worst in Tampa, but after a home and away sweep of Florida and a 2-0 shutout win on the road against a very good Pittsburg Penguin team, there is a glimmer of hope for the first time in a long time for this team. The defense is still allowing too many shots on goal, but is getting better. The offense has come alive as Vinny and Marty have begun to light up the nets a little and  look much more fluid on the ice than they have all season.

As stated already, they are still the worst in Tampa, but they may not hold that title for too much longer if they keep up with these strange winning ways. They finish off the month of December at home against the Montreal Canadiens and could be starting the new year off on the right foot as the season rolls on. If the Lightning can pull themselves out of the bottom of the heap and even raise themselves into playoff contention, the argument could leave the Bulls and Bucs battling it out for worst in show here. It would be nice to see that happen.

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Who’s to blame for the Bucs choke job and what do we do next?

Sunday, 28. December 2008

Well, it was as ugly as it could possibly be. Not only did they drop the final four games of the season and miss the playoffs, but they did it in old school orange Buccaneer fashion. I think we all took the Carolina loss fairly well, it was on the road against a tough team and the Bucs were banged up. The Atlanta game was tough to swallow, but it was another tough road game and we could all understand it a little. The San Diego game was an absolute disaster and no one wanted to believe that it actually happened. It all could have been salvaged though with a win against an awful Oakland team and a Cowboy loss. The Cowboys did their part by taking an absolutely laughable beating at the hands of the Eagles, but it was too little too late. The Bucs had already lost to the second most dysfunctional team in the NFL, and it wasn’t as close as the 31-24 score would lead one to believe. This monumental collapse has left me wondering, who do we blame for this? Let’s try to figure it out.

  • The offense? Jon Gruden’s offense has never really taken off in Tampa Bay and this season seemed to showcase all the problems we’ve had offensively in the Gruden era. Joey Galloway was the once favored WR who all of a sudden vanished. Warrick Dunn was the aging RB who emptied his tank yet didn’t have enough to carry them. The QB madness continued on with Garcia, Griese and McCown. The offensive line was up and down, mostly down. Any of this sound familiar? As bad as it seemed, this wasn’t the problem.
  • Injuries? There is no doubt that the Bucs lost more than their fair share of guys to injuries and that always plays a factor, but this team has been allegedly avoiding big name free agents to build depth. Where was the depth? Again though, this wasn’t the problem.
  • The players? Now I’ve got to admit, I’m going to put a lot of this on the players, especially in the playoff stretch. The stars in Brooks, Barber, Galloway and Garcia are all close to the end and their skills have diminished noticeably. That being said, I expected a lot more out of the defense, especially since Monte Kiffin announced his intent to depart to Tennessee, but they didn’t step up. I thought we might see that one last charge of Kiffin and his boys toward greatness, but they didn’t even achieve averageness (is that a word?). I put much of the demise on the players, but not all of it.
  • Monte Kiffin? I do not put this one Monte Kiffin. As bad as the defense was in the final quarter season and as equally bad the timing was on the announcement of his decision to leave, I don’t blame Monte. He has shown us that he’s nothing if he’s not prepared and professional. I guarantee you Monte had the scheme’s in place to beat every last one of the teams the Bucs played throughout the entire season. He can’t force guys to not miss assignments or actually tackle someone that they are close to. This is not on Monte Kiffin.
  • The defense? I will lump this one in with the players. Ronde Barber has been exposed as an aging corner, Derrick Brooks was in on less plays than in any season I could remember and there still isn’t enough of a rush being put on by the front four. The defense had enough physical impairments that the schemes couldn’t overcome. Barrett Ruud went from all-world to all-ok late in the season. Gaines Adams I’m officially calling a bust. Phillip Buchanon looked like he was still a Raider and the rest of everyone on the team basically filled in where they could. I think Monte saw this and that helped him make his decision to leave easier. Trying to find replacements for Brooks and company will be tough and I think he wants to spend his golden years having a little more fun than that. Defense is lumped in with the players so that’s not it either.
  • Gruden/Allen?I think we all know where I was headed with this. I put it on Gruden and Allen.

Now it’s hard to put a late season meltdown on Bruce Allen, but he’s Jon Gruden’s do boy, so he takes it on the chin there. Bruce Allen has not done a good job of enticing quality free agents to come here and the drafting has been questionable at best. The draft’s have gotten somewhat better, but not much. This all still leads to Jon Gruden though.

Gruden has been the man here, especially since Allen arrived, and all things get fixed on his shoulders. The drafting of offensive talent, particularly the skill positions, has been bad. The management of talent on the field has been questionable at best and the lies have become more abundant in the process. Galloway is hurt, oh wait no he isn’t. Jeff Garcia is hurt, oh wait he isn’t. How bout this one, hey Luke McCown, if Garcia is hurt this week, you will start so I’ll have you take a majority of the snaps this week to get ready. Sunday comes and Brian Griese starts? Now I’m going to try and come at this from a different angle for all those Gruden defenders and everyone else who thinks Gruden should keep his job. The “core” of this team is still on defense and is getting on in years. Derrick Brooks and Ronde Barber don’t have time on their side. The offensive core is really questionable. This is an offensive coach who’s core right now are an aging QB in Garcia he can’t get along with, an offensive line that is still a work in progress, a WR in Galloway that watched the season from the bench, another WR in Bryant who is going to get big money and doesn’t seem all that happy here, a RB group that includes an aging Warrick Dunn and a broken Cadillac Williams (whose career is now in jeapordy) and TE’s that are seldom utilized or productive. I think the time has come for all us fans to realize that the run is over.

It’s time, especially with Kiffin’s departure, to lovingly let go of the old and bring in the new. We all loved Gruden in the Super Bowl season and we all have loved the run of the defense under Kiffin that gave us Brooks, Barber, Sapp, Lynch, Nickerson, Quarles and so on. I will cherish these memories for the rest of my life as we all will as fans. But we now must look at turning the page and starting over. We have tons of cap room and great ownership who let’s football guys do their jobs so when, if not now, will it be time to turn the page? It’s hard to do, but don’t you think you’ll be excited when the new wave comes through? I was excited with what I saw from Ruud and Talib this season and there could be more than that if we start looking toward the future now instead of holding on to the past. I hear people saying “who would we get better than Gruden if we fired him?” I don’t know, but do you think no one is better than him, seriously?

Look at what Mike Smith did in Atlanta this year. Look at what Tony Dungy did here when he was an unknown. It doesn’t matter whether you are a Gruden basher or a Garcia basher or whatever, it’s time for us to let the past go and embrace the future. I’m not saying that Gruden can’t build it from scratch here, but I would bet against it. How’s his track record with young players? Do you think that Matt Ryan would play that well under Gruden? I think not. Gruden’s success has always been with veterans and I haven’t seen any veteran players beating down the door to play here other than Jeff Garcia and we see how that’s going. Let’s all let it go and Gruden/Allen with it. Let’s take a chance on one of those up and coming coordinators and see what happens. Maybe it will work out again.

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The Bucs deserve what they get.

Friday, 26. December 2008

The Bucs need help going into the final weekend if they are going to make the playoffs and it should come as no surprise to anyone. Since the arrival of Jon Gruden in Tampa, the Bucs have a 13-18 record in December (which includes a 3-10 record in the last three years) and haven’t looked like they’re going to make any statements yet this month. Within this scenario as well, I don’t think this upcoming game against the Raiders is going to be as easy as most think it will be. The Bucs have opened up as a 13 point favorite against a bad Oakland team, but I’m not buying it. The one thing the Raiders have that the Bucs must fear is a running game. Oakland can throw 3 above average running backs at the Bucs in Justin Fargas, Darren McFadden and Michael Bush and that’s more than enough to make me cringe. If the Bucs lose this game, nothing else matters, if they win they still need Philly to beat Dallas in order to get in.

It’s probably more possible that the Bucs get in rather than not, but it doesn’t excite me either. I don’t mind a team “backing in” if that’s how it goes, and I don’t mind them getting in under less than preferred circumstances either. Get in and things can happen. I have had trouble dealing with the thought that this team had control of it’s playoff aspirations before losses to Carolina, Atlanta and San Diego (Carolina and San Diego being blowout losses). All this being said, the Bucs absolutely deserve whatever it is that they get. If they get in, they earned it. They did enough throughout the season to be one of the few left and they deserve to be there. If they don’t get in, especially by losing to the second worst team in the NFL at home, they deserve to be home watching the rest of the teams that made it. There’s no other way to put it. I have my fingers crossed for the game on Sunday, but I don’t have a good feeling about it and I think we all could be disappointed with the outcome. We’ll see.

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Don’t believe everyone when they talk about the Bucs playoff scenarios.

Tuesday, 16. December 2008

I’ve been digging through the tie-breaker rules within the NFL and trying to figure out what has to happen for the Bucs to make the playoffs and I’ve come up with this. No one can figure it out yet! Look, here it is. If the Cowboys, Falcons and Bucs all win out than it comes down to certain things. The Bucs lose out to Dallas because of the head-to-head loss. The tie breaker between the Falcons and Bucs is more complicated though. I’ve heard everyone saying things to contradict each other and, unless I’m misunderstanding something, there’s no way you can figure it out right now. If both teams win out as explained, they would have the same record in virtually every way. The Bucs would have a better home record, but that doesn’t seem to matter. Here’s the tie breaker rules from the NFL site.

Two Clubs

  1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
  2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
  3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
  4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
  5. Strength of victory.
  6. Strength of schedule.
  7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
  8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
  9. Best net points in common games.
  10. Best net points in all games.
  11. Best net touchdowns in all games.
  12. Coin toss

This tells me that it would come down to strength of victory. I’m not sure if that’s for head-to-head, common opponents, overall or what but I take this from it. The Bucs better go Urban Meyer and look to destroy the Chargers and Raiders. If it’s overall than they need to blow these teams out and that would put them in ahead of Atlanta. They need to win big in their final games and that should take care of things. I could be wrong, it wouldn’t be the first time, but I think that’s the way it’s going to be. Anyone else know for sure?

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Bucs get stomped by Panthers.

Tuesday, 9. December 2008

This is why I tell everyone not to get too far ahead of themselves when they talk about the Bucs and the playoffs. Carolina came out mean and aggressive at home as they set out to try to win out and the Bucs were the first opponent to feel the wrath of what this team can do. In a somewhat surprising twist in this game it was the defense that let us down. The offense played decent against a good defense with no turnovers and moved the ball well enough to win in most any other game. The defense looked very small last night in getting man handled up front as they gave up nearly 300 yards rushing. This is something our defense has always been susceptible to given that we have smallish interior defensive linemen. Monte Kiffin can usually game plan well enough to overcome these things, but not last night. The game was tied at 17 going into the fourth quarter and it looked like it was going to be one of those games where it would be decided in the final two minutes, but no such luck. Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams went off and started running through the line however they felt and it was over soon after. On the positive side of things Antonio Bryant was an animal last night with a 9 catch 200 yard performance.  Ronde Barber said after the game that they ran a handful of different plays and that they just executed better. Maybe that’s what Tony Dungy was talking about way back then huh? Anyway, the season isn’t over and we still look good for the playoffs if we can knock off Atlanta at home. This game in Atlanta has now become the biggest game of the year because if we can win here, it all but clinches the playoffs for this team with bad Charger and Raider teams coming here to finish off the season. Hope it goes better in Atlanta this week.

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